Valencia vs Barcelona Prediction and Tips

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
14 December 2023, 13:24

Valencia vs Barcelona Preview

Barcelona were beaten at home by La Liga sensation Girona last weekend and are now seven points behind the top spot. The Catalans cannot afford to drop more points in the coming weeks or they risk falling out of the title race even before the 2023/24 campaign reaches its halfway point.

On Saturday, December 16, Xavi’s men will pay a visit to Valencia. The kick-off at Mestalla is scheduled for 9:00 pm local time.

Before diving into the Valencia vs Barcelona prediction, it is worth noting that the visitors have a midweek game in the UEFA Champions League while Los Che will get a full week of rest.

Valencia Preview

Valencia are currently placed 11th in La Liga with 19 points. Coached by Ruben Baraja, Los Che have scored 17 and conceded 21 goals in 16 matches.

After battling relegation last term, Valencia have improved in the 2023/24 campaign. On the other hand, their recent form is not the most impressive, with one win, one draw and three losses in the last five league matches. They are winless in the last four consecutive games, which will be a factor in the Valencia vs Barcelona tips.

The hosts will be missing Javi Guerra and Gabriel Paulista through suspension, as well as Andre Almeida and Jose Gaya through injury.

Barcelona Preview

Barcelona sit fourth in La Liga with 34 points after 16 matches, having scored 30 and conceded 18 goals. The Catalans have recorded 10 wins, four draws and two losses in the 2023/24 La Liga campaign so far.

The loss to Girona aside, Barcelona’s recent form is not entirely bad, having also recorded three wins and one draw in the last five matches. However, it may be important to keep in mind that all of those three losses were by a one-goal lead, which makes this run slightly less impressive.

The defending champions will travel to Mestalla without Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Gavi and Inigo Martinez due to injuries. Nevertheless, they still have the superior squad despite the absentees, which would explain why the Valencia vs Barcelona odds favour the visitors.

Betting Tips Valencia vs Barcelona

Under 2.5 goals

Most fans watch football for the goals, which is completely fair, but we do not expect too many of them at Mestalla for reasons we will explain later. For now, we should mention that the odds on under 2.5 goals stand at 1.95 on Bet365.

First of all, Valencia are a fairly defensive team. The away match against Real Madrid aside, Los Che have conceded three goals in the other four recent games, and that is despite losing two of those matches. Against Barcelona, the hosts will likely bet on a low block and counter-attacking approach again, as opening up against such a difficult rival will minimise their chances of getting any points at Mestalla.

And second, the Catalans are not necessarily in the best scoring form at the moment. Xavi’s boys have scored seven goals in the last five matches, and they tend to do especially poorly against low blocks this term.

Robert Lewandowski to score anytime

Robert Lewandoski has not exactly been in the form of his life since the start of 2023/24 season. Nevertheless, the Poland international has amassed eight goals and three assists in 14 La Liga appearances, which is not terrible. 

Lewandowski scored in Barcelona’s defeat to Girona, and also netted a brace in the 2-1 over Alaves in the last match before the international break. Given that the Catalans have already qualified for the UEFA Champions League round of 16, there is a decent chance that he will get some rest in Wednesday’s encounter with Royal Antwerp.

Because we expect a low-scoring game, we believe that Lewandowski is the likeliest goalscorer at Mestalla. Maybe the visitors will not create an abundance of scoring opportunities like they did against Girona and Atletico Madrid, but the veteran striker will definitely get at least something, and he should be able to convert it. Bet365 offer 2.20 odds on Lewandowski scoring anytime.

Barcelona win

Although we have not been too flattering towards the visitors in our Valencia vs Barcelona prediction, we still expect the Catalans to get the win in the end. Bet365 give 1.61 odds on a Barcelona win on Saturday.

Xavi’s team did lose to Girona 4-2 at home, but that match could’ve frankly gone either way. In any case, Barcelona had a better xG score (expected goals) than Girona, meaning that they were simply not as confident in front of the goal.

The Catalans will be especially motivated to win at Mestalla in order to redeem themselves in front of the fans. And perhaps more importantly, Barcelona cannot afford to lose more points in the coming weeks or they risk dropping out of the La Liga race already in December. Valencia, winless in their last four matches, is the perfect victim.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our Valencia vs Barcelona tips are mere suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement in the end.