Real Madrid vs Napoli Prediction and Tips

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
28 November 2023, 13:56

Real Madrid vs Napoli Preview

The 2023/24 UEFA Champions League is back from the break, with just two more rounds left before the group stage finishes. A headliner match this week is going to be the clash between Real Madrid and Napoli at Santiago Bernabeu. The game on Wednesday, November 29, will kick off at 9 pm local time.

As it will be explained in our Real Madrid vs Napoli prediction, the hosts can afford to lose the upcoming match. However, it may also be important for Carlo Ancelotti to keep the momentum going considering the title race in La Liga.

Real Madrid Preview

Los Blancos currently top Group C with 12 points after four wins, boasting a record of nine goals scored and three conceded. With two more games left, Real Madrid have already secured their spot in the round of 16 so they have little to play for on Wednesday. 

However, this does not imply that Carlo Ancelotti will be okay with his team losing at home, a fact we will consider in our Real Madrid vs Napoli tips. While we may see some rotations from Los Blancos – especially amid the multiple injuries at Santiago Bernabeu – but Real Madrid need to build up their form as the title race in Spain is the closes in years.

Napoli Preview

In their head-to-head match back in October, Napoli were defeated 3-2 at home. Things have changed since then as Gli Azzurri hired Walter Mazzarri following the sacking of Rudi Garcia before the international break.

Mazzarri’s first match back in charge was a 2-1 away win over a solid Atalanta. Prior to his arrival, Napoli had one win in four matches.

The Italians sit in second place with seven points in Group C – with six goals scored and five conceded – and their knockout spot is not yet assured. Thus, Victor Osimhen & co will hope for at least some points on the road. However, the Real Madrid vs Napoli odds are not exactly in their favour.

Betting Tips Real Madrid vs Napoli

Real Madrid win

While Real Madrid do not need the win on Wednesday, we still believe the hosts will get the full three points nonetheless. Bet365 offers 1.83 odds on it happening.

The main reason here has to be Madrid’s impressive run of form. Carlo Ancelotti’s men are undefeated in their last 11 matches, winning nine of them. The only outliers are the draws with Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano, two teams that played from the back against Los Blancos.

Napoli, on the other hand, are a much more aggressive team but this also means leaving more spaces behind. Since they need at least some points at Santiago Bernabeu, playing with a low block is not the way to go.

While Real Madrid may indeed shuffle the names on Wednesday, the likes of Jude Bellingham, Toni Kroos, Fede Valverde and many others are still expected to start. Even with a rotated squad, the Spaniards can field a scary line-up.

Over 2.5 goals

Due to Napoli’s expected proactive approach, we believe that the match at Santiago Bernabeu promises quite a few goals. The odds on over 2.5 goals stand at 1.66 on Bet365.

This expectation can also be backed up with stats, of course. There were at least three goals in four of Real Madrid’s latest five matches across all competitions. For Napoli, this is true in two matches only. But let’s not forget that in the encounter between the two back in Italy, there were five goals scored.

Napoli in general do not have the best defence, and with the majority of the team running forward on Wednesday, they are bound to allow some scoring chances. Perhaps they will score themselves, with Victor Osimhen now back from injury and Kvicha Kvaratskhelia picking up his form.

If you want to combine these two parts of our Real Madrid vs Napoli prediction, then Bet365 offer 2.62 odds on Los Blancos winning and there being over 2.5 goals in the match.

Rodrygo to score anytime

Since we are talking about goals, you might have expected to see Jude Bellingham here but no, we will go with Rodrygo for now. With Vinicius Junior out with an injury, the 22-year-old currently plays closer to the left flank which has benefited him significantly. The fans criticised him at the start of the 2023/24 campaign but we are seeing a very different Rodrygo now.

In fact, the Brazil international’s numbers speak for themselves – in the last three appearances for Real Madrid, he scored five goals and provided four assists. That is a total of nine goal contributions!

Rodrygo will certainly take advantage of Napoli’s poor defence, especially since he is apt at punishing the opposition for defensive errors. Bet365 give 2.62 odds on Rodrygo scoring anytime against Gli Azzurri. He did not score against Napoli in the first leg and will want to settle that score.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our Real Madrid vs Napoli tips are suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement in the end.