Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Tips

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
8 January 2024, 14:38

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Preview

Four clubs are taking a short pause from La Liga as they will travel to Saudi Arabia to dispute the 2023/24 Spanish Super Cup. To kick-start the tournament, Real Madrid will face off against Atletico Madrid in the first semi-final game on Wednesday, January 10. The kick-off is scheduled for 10 pm (UTC+3).

Last year, the competition was won by Barcelona, giving the two teams from Spain’s capital even more of an incentive to prove themselves this time around. Before jumping to the Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction, we should mention that the winner will face either Barcelona or Osasuna in the grand final on Sunday, January 14.

Real Madrid Preview

Real Madrid have had an incredible 2023/24 campaign so far, currently leading in La Liga and remaining involved in all of the cup competitions. Their solid season is confirmed by their recent form, as Carlo Ancelotti’s players are arriving for the Spanish Super Cup semi-final on the back of five wins across all competitions.

We have to keep in mind the absentees in our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid tips, with Los Blancos missing Eder Militao, Thibaut Courtois, David Alaba, and Lucas Vazquez due to injury.

Real Madrid have qualified for the Spanish Super Cup as winners of the 2022/23 Copa del Rey.

Atletico Madrid Preview

Los Colchoneros are travelling to Saudi Arabia in worse form than their city rivals, having recorded two wins, two draws and one loss in the most recent five matches. Diego Simeone’s men had a good start to the 2023/24 season but have now fallen outside of the La Liga top four following the loss to Girona.

Nevertheless, Atletico Madrid have other things going for them. For one, they beat Real Madrid 3-1 in the head-to-head league match back in September. Moreover, they are not missing too many key players, with only Thomas Lemar, Pablo Barrios and Vitolo sidelined with injuries. They have qualified for the Spanish Super Cup after finishing third in La Liga last year.

Given the recent form of the two teams, the Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid odds are predictably favouring the former.

Betting Tips for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

Both teams to score? Yes

The Madrid derby from back in September was a joy to watch as both teams arrived highly-motivated for the game. With a trophy on the line, we expect nothing less on Wednesday. Thus, our first Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction is both teams to score, with Bet365 offering 1.75 odds on it to happen.

Real Madrid are in better form, and we expect Los Blancos to get at least one past Atleti in Riyadh. Diego Simeone’s gang has kept just one clean sheet in the last five matches, conceding a total of 10 goals.

At the same time, Los Colchoneros should be able to get on the scoreboard too as their attackers have been performing consistently this term. Their rivals are missing key players in defence and have conceded against fourth-tier Arandina on the weekend, surely Atletico can squeeze one in as well. 

Draw

January is a very busy month for the top teams in Spain as they have to play in La Liga, Copa del Rey and also travel to Saudi Arabia for the Spanish Super Cup. With a tough calendar ahead, we do not see Real Madrid and Atletico going all out on Wednesday. 

First of all, the teams will be careful about opening up too much as an early conceded goal would put them in an uncomfortable position of coming from behind. Unlike in the league match from back in September, we predict a slower start on both ends, with the teams focused on possession in the opening minutes.

Should the score be level towards the end of the game, it could be smarter to save the fuel in the tank and play at a slower pace, deciding the outcome either in extra time or on penalties, which could be agreeable to both teams. Bet365 offer 3.40 odds on the full time ending in a draw.

Alvaro Morata to score anytime

And since we do expect some goals in the game, we will go ahead and predict one of the scorers – Alvaro Morata. The odds on the Spain international scoring past his former club stand at 3.25 on Bet365.

Morata has been having a very solid 2023/24 campaign, scoring 17 goals and providing three assists in 25 appearances for Atletico across the board. With 12 La Liga strikes, he is the second-best goalscorer in Spain’s top division, just one goal behind Jude Bellingham.

Alvaro’s current form is also relevant to the conversation, and he scored a hat-trick past Girona and added another goal against Getafe in recent weeks. Finally, we cannot ignore his brace against Real Madrid from earlier this season.

The 31-year-old was rested against Lugo in the Copa del Rey match, only coming on for the final 15 minutes, meaning that he will be on fresh legs in the Spanish Super Cup final.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid tips are only suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement in the end.