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Newcastle United vs Arsenal Tips and Predictions

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
2 November 2023, 06:31

After a weekend in which both teams played against weaker rivals, Newcastle United and Arsenal will go head to head on Saturday, November 4, in the Premier League. The kick-off is scheduled for 5:30 pm local time.

However, this does not mean that the two teams will approach Saturday’s encounter well-rested. Quite the opposite, as both sides have midweek matches in the EFL Cup on November 1, with Newcastle playing Manchester United away and Arsenal visiting West Ham.

Going into our Newcastle United vs Arsenal tips, we will keep in mind their midweek cup clashes as well as their performances so far.

Both to score? Yes

Newcastle United have not had the perfect start to the 2023/24 campaign and we have seen them struggle from time to time. Most notably, the Magpies are not as defensively solid as they were last term when the Toon had the joint-best defensive record in the league together with champions Manchester City. This term so far, Eddie Howe's men have conceded 11 goals in 10 league matches, keeping just four clean sheets.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have one of the best backlines in England’s top division with eight conceded goals to date but just five clean sheets. This means that the Gunners have conceded in every other match in the 2023/24 Premier League. 

So, Arsenal’s defence is not infallible, as proven by the matches against Chelsea or Fulham where they conceded twice. And Newcastle, despite underperforming at the back, are great going forward with the joint-best scoring record in the league – 26 scored goals. For these reasons, we expect both teams to score at the St James’ Park, and Bet365 offers 1.70 odds on it happening.

Under 11 corners

Despite the previous part of our Newcastle United vs Arsenal tips, we do not expect a goal-happy match at St James’ Park. With the two sides having EFL Cup matches on Wednesday, and more midweek fixtures in the Champions League coming up, it’s unlikely that the Magpies and the Gunners will go guns blazing on Saturday.

Instead of attacking in waves, counter-pressing the opponent and looking to take advantage of every potential counter-attack, the actual football between Newcastle and Arsenal will likely be played in the middle of the park with minimal scoring opportunities on both sides. 

While there should be goals because of the attack and defence disbalance and the fatigue which can lead to mistakes, the total number of shots should remain low. Similarly, there shouldn’t be too many corner kicks between Newcastle and Arsenal. Bet365 offers 1.66 odds on under 11 corner kicks in the match.

Newcastle over 2.5 cards

One thing we do expect a lot of is fouls, and this typically results in a high number of bookings. This should hold especially true for Newcastle as they will have less possession and will have to stop Arsenal from advancing up the field, including by fouls.

In general, Howe’s men do not shy away from committing offences. In 10 league matches so far, Newcastle has been shown 27 yellow cards. The only game in which the Magpies did not get booked was the 8-0 win over Sheffield United – there is no need for fouls when you are 3-0 up by the 35th minute.

In matches against more intense opponents, as it happened against Manchester City or Brighton, the Toon received at least four yellow cards. Arsenal play in a similar manner, which should prompt the home side to be more aggressive. So, Bet365’s 1.72 odds on over 2.5 cards for Newcastle look promising.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our Newcastle United vs Arsenal tips are mere suggestions, not a call to action. Rely on your own judgement first and foremost.