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Lazio vs Napoli Prediction and Tips

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
26 January 2024, 09:25

Lazio vs Napoli Preview

Napoli sensationally won the Serie A title last season and many saw them among the top contenders for 2023/24 as well. However, the Azzurri have regressed significantly after the departure of their manager Luciano Spallett over the summer, so much so that they might not even qualify for UEFA Champions League football next term.

In any case, newly-appointed manager Walter Mazzarri has to take it one step at a time, and their next opponents will be Lazio away on Sunday, January 28. The kick-off is scheduled for 6 pm local time.

The hosts are also having a difficult season but are still hoping for European qualification, which will make our Lazio vs Napoli prediction even more important from the point of view of the standings.

Lazio Preview

Lazio sit sixth in the league table after accumulating 33 points in 20 matches. The Eagles are just one point below the UEFA Champions League zone, with the race for European spots in Italy being especially intense.

After a tough start to the campaign, Maurizio Sarri’s men have improved in recent weeks. Thus, they have recorded four wins and one loss in the last five Serie A outings. Falling on a more conservative side, the Eagles have scored 24 and conceded 20 goals this league campaign so far.

The absentees will be an important consideration in our Lazio vs Napoli tips, and the hosts cannot count on Taty Castellanos and Patric via injury and Ciro Immobile and Mattia Zaccagni due to suspension.

Napoli Preview

The defending champions are currently only ninth in Serie A with 31 points after 20 matches. However, things are not as bad in reality as Fiorentina, currently in fourth place, are just three points ahead of them. 

Nevertheless, the Azzurri will not be approaching the match on Sunday in the best form as their last five league matches include two wins, one draw and two losses. Coached by Walter Mazzarri, they have scored 30 and conceded 25 goals in the 2023/24 Serie A. 

The visitors are missing Alex Meret, Natan and Mario Rui via injury, Frank Anguissa, Victor Osimhen have been called up for their national teams while Jens Cajuste and Kvicha Kvaratskhelia are suspended. With so many problems stacking up, the Lazio vs Napoli odds are expectedly favouring the hosts.

Betting Tips for Lazio vs Napoli

Under 2.5 goals

As we have alluded above, the Eagles are far from being an entertaining team, at least in terms of goals. Despite having Maurizio Sarri as their coach, the hosts are not that attack-oriented and would rather pass the ball around than go for a second goal if they are already 1-0 up. For this reason, our first Lazio vs Napoli prediction is a low-scoring game on Sunday. Bet365 give 1.61 odds on under 2.5 goals.

This expectation can be backed up by stats, as there have been under 2.5 goals in three out of Lazio's recent five Serie A matches. With their starting forwards Ciro Immobile and Mattia Zaccagni suspended for the game, it is difficult to imagine them scoring too many goals this weekend.

Napoli are dealing with similar problems as both Victor Osimhen and Kvicha Kvaratskhelia are unavailable. In their case, only two of their recent matches ended in under 2.5 goals but with a weakened attack, their scoring potential will be weakened this weekend.

Under 10 corners

As a consequence of a closed-off game with little scoring chances, we also predict a low number of corner kicks at Stadio Olimpico. The odds on under 10 corners stand at 1.83 on Bet365.

Lazio and their possession-focused football are the main reasons to believe that the main battle on Sunday will happen in the middle of the park. There are many scenarios that could lead to an increase in the number of corner kicks but all of them require shots on goal or crosses into the box, which goes against the tactics of the hosts.

Furthermore, the stats also suggest that there are not a lot of corners in matches involving these two teams. In the case of both Lazio and Napoli, there have been 10 corner kicks or more in just two of their most recent five Serie A games.

Lazio win

Lazio is clearly in better shape at the moment, at least when it comes to Serie A matches. We expect this trend to continue with a home win over Napoli, and Bet365 offer 2.25 odds on it happening.

Besides the better form and playing at home, the Eagles have other factors in their favour. First of all, they are not missing as many key players as Napoli, with the core of the team, especially the midfield, still available.

And second, Sarri’s men have had more time to recover ahead of the match. Lazio also took part in the Italian Super Cup in Saudi Arabia but were eliminated in the semi-finals on January 20. Napoli advanced to the final – and lost 1-0 to Inter Milan – which took place on January 23. The team took a hit to their morale and will also arrive more fatigued for the game.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our Lazio vs Napoli tips are only suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement in the end.