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Italy vs Ukraine Tips

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
11 September 2023, 11:29

With each passing international break it becomes more and more clear that England will top the Euro 2024 group C, meaning that the best Italy and Ukraine can hope for is a finish in second spot. Currently, Ukraine are second with seven points and Italy are third with four points and a game in hand. On Tuesday, September 12, the two teams will face off at San Siro, with the kick-off scheduled for 8:45 pm local time.

Obviously, a win will be the ideal result for both teams. However, the pressure on Italy is higher because Gli Azzurri are playing at home and new coach Luciano Spalletti started his tenure with a disappointing draw with North Macedonia. We will take this into account in our Italy vs Ukraine tips.

Italy win

Spalletti’s first game in charge of Italy was a 1-1 draw with North Macedonia away from home. This leaves Italy at one win, one draw, and one loss in the UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying campaign. Failing to qualify for the main tournament after winning UEFA Euro 2020 will be pure embarrassment for Gli Azzurri. Especially after missing out on the FIFA 2022 World Cup too. So, there is no time for Spalletti to get familiar with the job, he needs to start delivering results instantly.

With that in mind, we expect Italy to give their all in order to beat Ukraine at home. The Italians played a decent game in Skopje but struggled in front of the goal, only registering three shots on goal. However, we believe that the team has enough attacking talent in the likes of Ciro Immobile, Nicolo Zaniolo and others in order to perform better on Tuesday. William Hill gives 1.50 odds on an Italy win.

Over 2.5 goals

Italy and Ukraine have not faced each other since the friendly match all the way back in 2018, and those teams were completely different from their current versions. Thus, going into our Italy vs Ukraine tips, we’ll take into consideration their performances in the current UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying cycle.

Spalletti tries to instil a playing style similar to the one we saw at Napoli last term – high intensity, possession, focus on attack. Ukraine under Serhiy Rebrov – when facing stronger opposition in particular – prefers to give the ball away and sit back looking for the perfect opportunity to counter-attack. That's how they got a 1-1 result with England last week despite registering just two shots in total.

The game at San Siro this Tuesday will likely follow the same scenario. However, since Italy are pressed for the result, there should be more scoring opportunities on both ends. So, a bet on over 2.5 goals with 2.00 odds from William Hill looks fairly reasonable.

Both to score and Italy win

And since we expect a game with a high number of scoring chances, it makes perfect sense to mention the possibility of both teams scoring and Italy getting the three points in the end as well. Certainly, this outcome is riskier, and William Hill offers 3.75 odds on it happening.

The logic here is the same as in our Italy vs Ukraine tips above – Gli Azzurri need the win more so they will push harder than England did last week but will also leave more free spaces behind. At least one of Ukraine’s counters will result in a goal, although Italy should be able to score at least two or three goals of their own. So, even a 2-1 win for Italy will make this bet a winning one.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Regard our Italy vs Ukraine tips as a friendly suggestion and not as a call to action. Rely on your own judgement first and foremost.