A Clash of Styles for Lightweight Supremacy: Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier Betting Odds and Predictions

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
23 May 2024, 15:07

Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier

The highly anticipated UFC 302 main event will see Islam Makhachev defend his lightweight title against Dustin Poirier on June 1, 2024, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Makhachev, riding a 13-fight winning streak, aims for his third successful title defence.

Poirier, a former interim champion, is making his third attempt at the undisputed lightweight title after previous losses to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. These losses have affected Makhachev vs Poirier odds, with Islam appearing as an undisputed favourite.

Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier Odds

BookmakerMakhachev to WinPoirier to Win
Mr Play1.164.40

Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier Statistics and Physical Data Analysis 

Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier present contrasting styles and physical attributes. Makhachev, standing at 5'10" with a 70.5" reach, is a grappling specialist with an extensive background in Sambo and wrestling, relying on his ability to take opponents down and control them on the ground with his superior top game and submission skills.

On the other hand, Poirier, at 5'9" with a 72" reach, is a seasoned striker known for his boxing combinations, leg kicks, and knockout power, aiming to keep the fight standing and utilise his footwork.

Statistics and Physical DataIslam MakhachevDustin Poirier
Record (MMA)25-130-8 (1 NC)
Record (UFC)14-122-7

Islam Makhachev

Trained by the legendary Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov and closely associated with Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev has built an impressive career with a professional MMA record of 25-1-0. Known for his exceptional grappling and combat sambo skills, Makhachev has secured 11 wins by submission and 5 by knockout.

He made his UFC debut in 2015 and has since climbed the ranks, capturing the UFC Lightweight Championship by submitting Charles Oliveira at UFC 280. Makhachev is currently on a 13-fight winning streak, with notable victories over Alexander Volkanovski and Dan Hooker.

What to Expect from Islam Makhachev in His Fight Against Dustin Poirier

To make his best in the upcoming fight, Makhachev needs to utilise his best strengths. Makhachev should aim to take Poirier down early and often, leveraging his superior. Once on the ground, he can maintain dominant positions, using his ground control to wear Poirier down and limit his striking opportunities. At the same time, Islam should minimise time spent in striking exchanges, where Poirier has a clear advantage.

Performance in Last 5 Fights 

Alex VolkanovskiWinKO (Punches)UFC 298Feb 11, 2024
Charles OliveiraWinSubmission (Arm-Triangle Choke)UFC 280Oct 22, 2023
Rafael dos AnjosWinDecision (Unanimous)UFC 272Mar 5, 2022
Dan HookerWinSubmission (Kimura)UFC 267Oct 30, 2021
Thiago MoisesWinSubmission (Rear-Naked Choke)UFC on ESPN 26Jul 17, 2021

Dustin Poirier 

With a professional MMA record of 30-8-0, 1 NC, Poirier is renowned for his striking prowess and resilience inside the octagon. He began his career in 2009 and quickly made a name for himself with notable wins in the WEC before transitioning to the UFC. Poirier has faced and defeated some of the biggest names in the sport, including Conor McGregor and Justin Gaethje.

Despite setbacks in title fights against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, Poirier remains a top contender in the lightweight division. He trains with American Top Team under the guidance of head coach Mike Brown and has earned a reputation for his exciting fighting style.

What to Expect from Dustin Poirier in His Fight Against Islam Makhachev

Dustin Poirier's path to victory lies in his striking and resilience. He should employ his diverse striking arsenal, including powerful combinations and leg kicks, to keep Makhachev at bay. Dustin can and should maintain a high pace and pressure Makhachev, aiming to exploit any potential cardio weaknesses in the later rounds. At the same time, Poirier should avoid attempting guillotine chokes, which have previously led to unfavourable positions against grapplers like Makhachev.

Performance in Last 5 Fights

Michael ChandlerWinSubmission (Rear-Naked Choke)UFC 281Nov 12, 2023
Charles OliveiraLossSubmission (Rear-Naked Choke)UFC 269Dec 11, 2021
Conor McGregorWinTKO (Punches)UFC 264Jul 10, 2021
Conor McGregorWinTKO (Doctor Stoppage)UFC 257Jan 23, 2021
Dan HookerWinDecision (Unanimous)UFC on ESPN 12Jun 27, 2020

Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier Prediction

Dustin Poirier to Win

While the odds may favour Islam Makhachev, Dustin Poirier's path to victory likely lies in his ability to keep the fight standing and utilise his superior striking. If Poirier can effectively defend Makhachev's takedown attempts and force a striking battle, his powerful boxing combinations and leg kicks could potentially wear down the champion. Most importantly, Poirier's durability and experience in gruelling fights of attrition also give him a chance to outpace Makhachev in the later rounds. These factors can prove to be decisive in the upcoming fight, and for this Makhachev vs Poirier prediction, MrPlay gives 4.40.

Remember to gamble responsibly. Tips provided serve only as a recommendation, not as a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement.


Remember to gamble responsibly. Tips provided serve only as a recommendation, not as a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement.