Derby County vs Bristol Rovers Prediction and Tips

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
24 November 2023, 14:48

Derby County vs Bristol Rovers Preview

Similar to the higher divisions in England, the EFL League One was paused during the November international break with the exception of two matches that had been postponed. This weekend, League One returns in full force and one game that will excite the viewers is the clash between Derby County and Bristol Rovers. The kick-off at Pride Park Stadium is scheduled for 3 pm local time on Saturday, November 25.

Both teams are pushing for play-off spots this season, although the visitors are in a less favourable position as they remain without a head coach. We will keep this in mind in our Derby County vs Bristol Rovers prediction.

Derby County Preview

The Rams finished just one point below the promotion play-off zone last term in what was their first season in League One following relegation. Derby County can hope for a better season in 2023/24 despite their underwhelming performances at the start of the campaign.

Paul Warne has been able to improve the situation at Pride Park Stadium and his team currently sits in seventh place, tied on points with sixth-sitting Barnsley but with two games in hand compared to other rivals.

Derby have the second-best defence in the league with just 15 conceded goals and a respectable attacking output of 28 goals scored. Their defensive rigidity will play an important role in our Derby County vs Bristol Rovers tips.

Bristol Rovers Preview

The Pirates did not have the best start to their campaign and it was the poor results which prompted the decision to fire coach Joey Barton back in October. A month later, interim manager Andy Magnan remains undefeated. Under his command, Bristol Rovers have won two matches and drawn once in League One. The Gas currently sit 10th in the league standings with 23 points.

In terms of goal difference, the Gas do not compare with Derby County. Thus, Bristol have scored 22 goals in 16 matches while conceding 20, which is fine for a mid-table club but does not bode well for them in our Derby County vs Bristol Rovers tips.

Betting Tips Derby County vs Bristol Rovers

Derby County win

Right of the gate, we believe that the Rams will come out victorious on Saturday. Paul Warne’s men were not that successful at Pride Park Stadium early into the campaign but they are currently unbeaten at home in over three months. 

Bristol Rovers are indeed on a positive run of form but we should take into account that these results have come against teams in the relegation zone or just above it. Derby will thus become the strongest opponent the Pirates have faced since the appointment of Andy Magnan as interim coach.

In the two head-to-head matches from last term, Derby got the full three points at home in a 4-2 victory and then went on to draw 1-1 with Bristol on the road. Bet365 offer 1.60 odds on a win for the home side, and we can’t imagine what would stop the Rams from achieving it.

Under 2.5 goals

One thing to note about Bristol Rovers is that Andy Magnan has gone back to the drawing board and is trying to build the team from the bottom up. As a first step, the interim manager has to organise the defence which he has been relatively successful in doing.

In the three matches under Magnan so far, there have been more than two goals just once – in the 2-1 victory over Northampton. Considering Derby’s defence, it is difficult to imagine them getting on the scoreboard. We again expect a defensive approach from the Gas, and Bet365 gives 2.05 odds on under 2.5 goals.

The Rams have a solid attack and that’s why we expect them to still win the game. However, we can see the hosts hitting the breaks in terms of intensity once they are one goal up. With a busy schedule up ahead, it makes more sense trying to save up their energy than looking for more ways to break down Bristol’s low block.

Under 11 corners

And somewhat similar to our previous Derby County vs Bristol Rovers prediction, the clash at Pride Park Stadium promises a low number of corner kicks. The odds on under 11 corners stand at 2.00 on Bet365.

Since we believe that the Pirates will be more concerned with stopping Derby’s attacks than scoring themselves, this should limit the total number of scoring chances in the match. Fewer shots and fewer corner kicks go hand in hand, obviously.

To back this claim with stats, there were 10, five and five corner kicks respectively in Bristol's matches against Carlisle United, Reading and Northampton. As for Derby, there were more than 10 corner kicks in just one of their last three matches. Incidentally, that match was the 3-0 win over Barsley, a team with a much more proactive approach than their rivals from this Saturday.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our Derby County vs Bristol Rovers tips are suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement in the end.