Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Prediction and Tips

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
26 January 2024, 08:04

Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Preview

With Real Madrid and Barcelona dealing with their own problems, many saw Atletico Madrid as the favourites to win La Liga in 2023/24. With the first half of the campaign behind us, Diego Simeone’s men are virtually out of the title race, only fighting for a finish in the top four. Their next opponents will be an in-form Valencia on Saturday, January 28. The kick-off at Civitas Metropolitano is at 4:15 pm local time.

Our Atletico Madrid vs Valencia prediction will also keep in mind the mid-week clashes in the Copa del Rey, with the Rojiblancos being scheduled to take on Sevilla in a quarter-final match on Thursday. Los Che are out of the competition.

Atletico Madrid Preview

Atletico Madrid are fourth in the standings with 41 points after 20 games, tied with fifth-placed Athletic Bilbao but with a game in hand. The Rojiblancos are 11 points behind league-leaders Girona and 10 points behind rivals Real Madrid.

In the 2023/24 league campaign so far, Atletico have scored 40 and conceded 23 goals. As for their recent form in La Liga, it includes two wins, one draw and two losses.

The absentees are also important for our Atletico Madrid vs Valencia tips, with the hosts missing Thomas Lemar, Cesar Azipilicueta and Vitolo through injury, as well as Reinildo Mandava who is away on international duty.

Valencia Preview

Catching many by surprise, Valencia have had a solid season under Ruben Baraja so far. Los Che are currently seventh in the table with 32 points after 21 matches and with a goal record of 27 in favour and 24 against.

Besides the extra days of rest, the visitors are also approaching the match on Civitas Metropolitano in better form, with four wins and one draw in the last five La Liga encounters.

Los Che cannot count on Andre Almeida and potentially Sergi Canos via injury, while Mouctar Diakhaby and Selim Amallah have been called up by their national teams. Despite the better form, the visitors are still seen as the underdogs in the Atletico Madrid vs Valencia odds.

Betting Tips for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia

Under 2.5 goals

While we do believe that the clash at Civitas Metropolitano will be an entertaining one for the viewers, we do not necessarily expect a large number of goals in our Atletico Madrid vs Valencia prediction. Bet365 offer 2.00 odds on under 2.5 goals on Saturday.

Firstly, Valencia have been able to climb to seventh place by adopting a conservative approach. Only seven clubs have conceded fewer goals than Ruben Baraja’s team in the 2023/24 season. What is more, Los Che have three conceded goals and two clean sheets in their last five La Liga games.

And second, Atletico are getting stretched thin having to play in the Spanish Super Cup and Copa del Rey, especially considering that they had two matches against Real Madrid that went to extra time in recent weeks. After scoring just once against 19th-placed Granada, it is difficult to expect more of them against Valencia.

Alvaro Morato goal

One name we expect to see on the scoresheet, though, is Alvaro Morata. The Atletico Madrid striker is having an impressive 2023/24 campaign, with 19 goals and three assists in 28 appearances across all competitions.

His recent form is especially noteworthy, as the Spain international netted five goals in the five matches played by the Rojiblancos in 2024. This also includes the game against Lugo in the cup where Morata came on as a substitute for the last 15 minutes of the game.

If we were to talk only about the La Liga matches, then Morata scored a hat-trick in the 4-3 loss to Girona and the only goal in Atletico’s win over Granada last weekend, putting his tally at four goals in the two La Liga matches played in 2024. We expect his good run of form to continue with a goal against Valencia, and Bet365 give 2.20 odds on Alvaro Morata scoring anytime.

Atletico Madrid win

Valencia have undoubtedly been in great form in recent weeks and will approach the match on Saturday well-rested. Despite having these things in their favour, we can still see the visitors losing the match at Civitas Metropolitano. The odds on a win for Atletico Madrid stand at 1.50 on Bet365.

Valencia's winning streak started on December 19 with the defeat of Rayo Vallecano on the road. Before that, Los Che had been winless in five consecutive matches, which speaks of the inconsistency faced by Ruben Baraja's team.

Atletico definitely got a morale boost after taking revenge and eliminating Real Madrid from Copa del Rey last week. Simeone cannot afford to finish outside of the top four in La Liga as they need UEFA Champions League football next season. With Athletic Bilbao and other competitors going strong, the Rojiblancos need to give it their all and win the match against Valencia.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our Atletico Madrid vs Valencia tips are only suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement in the end.