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Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Tips & Predictions

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
1 September 2023, 14:32

Atletico Madrid and Sevilla have been polar opposites at the start of the 2023/24 La Liga campaign. While the Rojiblancos have recorded two wins and an away draw against a very solid Real Betis side, Sevilla are three for three losses and sit dead-last in the league table. 

The Andalusians had a poor start in the league last season as well but Jose Luis Mendilibar, after his appointment mid-season, brought the team out of the relegation zone and led them to the Europa League title. Still, consistency matters and the coach needs to start proving his worth again. 

Mendilibar will try to get the first points of the season at Civitas Metropolitano on Sunday, September 3 with the kick-off at 6:30 pm local time. However, our Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla tips are not in his favour.

Under 9.5 shots on target

Although Atletico Madrid’s previous match was a 7-0 thriller against Rayo Vallecano, the game against Sevilla is unlikely to be as entertaining. Simeone is trying to instil a more attacking style of play in his team, yet the game against Real Betis showed that the Rojiblancos are happy to sit back and defend like in the old good days if the situation requires it. 

Since Sevilla need the win more, Atleti could easily give the ball away and look to hit the opponent on the counter, the same way it happened against Real Betis. And how many shots on target did the teams record in the match at Benito Villamarin? Just one.

It’s almost impossible that this will repeat in Sunday’s encounter, but we can imagine the two teams struggling to – or, in Atletico’s case, not even needing to – record 10 shots on goal. Bet365 offers 1.73 odds on this event.

Both teams to receive 2+ cards? Yes

Contrary to the way an outsider may perceive it, La Liga is a very aggressive league. Combined with the style of refereeing in Spain, this typically results in more fouls and more yellow cards per game than in the other top leagues. Of course, not all teams play the same way, but that is not applicable in our case.

Both Atletico and Sevilla encapsulate this aggressive approach quite well, as the teams received seven cards each in the opening three games (eight for Atleti if you include Diego Simeone’s yellow card against Betis). 

We expect Sunday’s clash in Madrid to be no different, and Sevilla’s intense pressing and Atletico’s no-nonsense defence may easily result in at least two cards on both sides. The 1.80 odds from Bet365 look rather favourable.

Atletico to win to nil

Diego Simeone’s men are the obvious favourites in this tie with 1.45 odds from Bet365 in their favour. However, we wanted to go a step further in our Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla tips and say that the Rojiblancos will win the game to nil, with the odds standing at 2.38.

Yes, Sevilla did score in all of their previous matches, but those were Girona, Alaves and Valencia, teams that are nowhere near as good in defence as Atletico. The Andalusians may end up with more possession in the game at Civitas Metropolitano, but even if they break through Atleti’s backline, there’s still Jan Oblak waiting in the goal. 

On the other hand, Atleti will surely be able to score a few thanks to the in-form Antoine Griezmann, Alvaro Morata and others. The goalless draw against Betis was an okay result because it was away from home – in Madrid, the locals will certainly aim for the win.

Please remember to gamble responsibly. Our Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla tips are mere suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement.