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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction and Tips

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
17 January 2024, 14:20

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Preview

After an entertaining semi-final match in the Spanish Super Cup, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid are scheduled to meet once again on Thursday, January 18, this time in the Copa del Rey round of 16. The kick-off at Civitas Metropolitano is scheduled for 9:30 pm local time.

Having won the Spanish Super Cup, Los Blancos will be approaching the derby in better form and in better mental shape, something to consider in our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction. However, we have to also keep in mind that the visitors will barely get any time to recover due to their involvement in the final.

Atletico Madrid Preview

Atletico Madrid are approaching the Copa del Rey clash on the back of two wins, one draw and two losses across all competitions. In these five matches, Diego Simeone’s team scored 13 and conceded 13 goals. Their latest match was the 5-3 defeat to Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup semi-final on January 11.

We also have to also keep in mind the absentees for our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid tips, with the home side missing the injured Thomas Lemar, Pablo Barrios and Vitolo, as well as Reinildo Mandava who is away on international duty. 

Atletico beat Lugo 3-1 in the previous round to reach this stage. The last time the Colchoneros won the Copa del Rey was back in 2012/13.

Real Madrid Preview

Real Madrid’s last five matches have all been victories, including the 4-1 defeat of Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup final on January 14. In these matches, Los Blancos have recorded 14 goals in favour and five against. They have not lost a match since September 24.

Carlo Ancelotti cannot count on Thibaut Courtois, Eder Militao, David Alaba and Lucas Vazquez due to injuries. 

Real Madrid advanced to the Copa del Rey round of 16 by beating Arandina 3-1 in the previous round. They are the defending champions. Despite the visitors having less time to recover, the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid odds are slightly in their favour. 

Betting Tips Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Both teams to score? Yes

As you might have understood from the numbers above, Atletico are no longer that defensive force that took Europe by storm in the early days of Diego Simeone. The Rojiblancos are trying to instil a more attacking playing style. And while they indeed started scoring more in recent seasons, this has also hurt them defensively. 

Real Madrid have surprisingly been a more well-balanced team in 2023/24 and they currently boast the best defence in La Liga. At the same time, Ancelotti’s team is definitely not impenetrable. Thus, Los Blancos have kept just two clean sheets in the last five matches, and conceded three from Atletico in their recent head-to-head clash.

Considering all the above, our first Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction is a goal in both nets. Bet365 offers 1.61 odds on both teams scoring at Civitas Metropolitano.

Over 2.5 goals

Continuing with the parallels between the most recent Madrid derby and the next one, we predict another high-scoring game. The odds on over 2.5 goals stand at 1.80 on Bet365.

So far, Atletico and Real Madrid have met twice in 2023/24 – the Colchoneros won 3-1 at home in La Liga on September 24, and Real Madrid won the recent derby in the Spanish Super Cup 5-3. Clearly, the two teams know how to hurt each other in attack and do not do enough to stop the opponent from scoring.

We have to also keep in mind that the two teams will be approaching the match in different physical shape. While the hosts have had a full week of rest, Real Madrid are returning from Saudi Arabia having played one more match in the meantime. Ancelotti may be forced to rotate his squad and this can hurt the team’s defensive security.

Draw

Regardless of how many goals are scored in the Madrid derby, our expectation is that the winner will not be decided in the first 90 minutes. Bet365 give 3.30 odds on a draw between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in regular time.

After being defeated in the Spanish Super Cup, the Colchoneros will be seeking revenge on Thursday. As mentioned earlier, Diego Simeone has had plenty of time to prepare his team for the upcoming clash and will have his players well-rested.

At the same time, we cannot ignore Real Madrid’s incredible form since the start of the season. Ancelotti’s men have been able to win even those matches where their team looked inferior, so we can see them getting a draw even against a rested and motivated Atletico. With a better bench, Los Blancos will feel comfortable deciding the match in extra time.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid tips are only suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement in the end.