Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Tips and Predictions

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
22 September 2023, 11:43

The two teams are approaching the Madrid derby in very different shapes. Real Madrid are undefeated in La Liga, topping the league standings with five straight wins. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, sit in seventh place with seven points after four games and a match in hand.

Atletico have been trying to change their style in recent months and adopt a more offensive philosophy, but with several players out with injuries, it is likely that Diego Simeone will go back to the old ways. The kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 24, at 9 pm local time.

In our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid tips, we expect a cautious approach from the two teams which may result in a low-scoring game.

Under 2.5 goals

Simeone’s new attacking approach had at its core Koke, the one responsible for the ball circulation at Atletico Madrid. The midfield trio would be completed by Thomas Lemar and Rodrigo de Paul, who were more offensive-minded but also offered a lot in terms of pressing. Unfortunately, all three are currently out with injuries and it is very unlikely that they will recover in time for the Madrid derby.

With the key players injured, the Colchoneros will revert to their defensive approach, looking to hurt Real Madrid on the counter. Besides, following Atletico’s underwhelming results at the start of the 2023/24 La Liga campaign, they cannot afford to experiment – they need the points.

Real Madrid has been able to get past low blocks like Getafe and Union Berlin, but those were difficult matches with a small number of goals. Atleti are even more experienced in defence, so we shouldn’t expect too entertaining of a match. Bet365 offers 1.80 odds on under 2.5 goals on Sunday.

Under 9 corners

Unlike Getafe and Union Berlin, Atletico Madrid know how to keep possession under pressure. That is a good way to defend as well, especially since Real Madrid are not too apt at pressing. Moreover, with the Colchoneros having Antoine Griezmann and Alvaro Morata in attack, Carlo Ancelotti should discourage his team from taking risky decisions in the middle of the pitch as they could get hit on the counter.

So, a relatively low block with Atleti keeping possession from time to time should generally limit the number of shots the two teams will record at Civitas Metropolitano. This, in turn, may result in a low number of corner kicks in the game – something similar to Real Madrid’s match against Real Sociedad, when the sides combined for just seven corner kicks.

Bet365’s 2.38 odds on under 9 corners look rather attractive.


Finally – the riskiest part of our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid tips – we think that the Madrid derby will end in a draw. Bet354 gives 3.40 odds on this event, which is the highest among the final result options.

While both teams would obviously prefer a win here, one point may be an acceptable result too. Atletico with their depleted squad do not have too many ways of hurting their city rivals but can still build a solid defensive block. Real Madrid, while in better form, continue to struggle against low blocks as they were able to beat Getafe and Union Berlin only thanks to goals in the added time.

In the previous two matches between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, the initial 90 minutes ended in draws. This trend may continue on Sunday, which will mean that Los Blancos drop their first points of the season.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid tips are mere suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement first and foremost.