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AS Roma vs AC Milan Tips & Predictions

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
1 September 2023, 10:27

In the Italian Serie A, AS Roma and AC Milan couldn’t have started the season more differently. Jose Mourinho’s team is yet to record their first win of the season after drawing 2-2 with Salernitana on opening day and then losing 2-1 on the road to minnows Verona. AC Milan, on the other hand, currently top the table following two comfortable wins, 2-0 vs Bologna away and 4-1 vs Torino at home.

On Friday, September 1, the two teams will face off at Stadio Olimpico, with the kick-off scheduled for 8:45 pm local time. Mourinho, who has been given more summer investments than ever before, needs to start delivering results but the Rossoneri are currently one of the most in-form teams in the league. That being said, our AS Roma vs AC Milan tips don’t look too favourable for the home side.

Both teams to score? Yes

While AS Roma is yet to register their first win of the 2023/24 league campaign, the Giallorossi have shown some improvement in attack compared to last term. AS Roma scored in both games, and while they did lose to Verona, the 1.45 xG (expected goals) and seven shots on target speak favourably of AS Roma’s attack. Of course, similar compliments can be paid to AC Milan and especially to their forwards Olivier Giroud and Christian Pulisic who currently sit at three and two goals respectively.

We do not expect a goal fest necessarily but we do think that both teams will end up on the scoreline, with William Hill offering 1.91 odds on this event. While Milan have conceded just one goal this season so far, it was by mere luck that the match against Bologna ended with a clean sheet for Stefano Pioli’s men. 

Under 2.5 goals

What was atypical of AS Roma in their opening two games was their possession-based, attacking approach. Mourinho, a known pragmatist, is highly unlikely to set up his team in a similar fashion on Friday since AS Roma cannot compete with AC Milan in terms of player quality. A deep block, occasional counter-attacks and set-pieces helped the Giallorossi achieve two draws against Pioli’s side last term, and going back to the same scenario makes a lot of sense.

AC Milan’s attack has been impressive in recent weeks, but there are two reasons why we highlight William Hill’s 1.60 odds on under 2.5 goals. First of all, AS Roma is a level above the teams AC Milan has faced so far. And second, even if Milan open the score, between protecting the lead or going for more goals, Pioli will certainly go for the first.

Draw no bet – Milan

In our opinion, despite them needing the three points more, a goal is the best AS Roma can hope for in this game. AC Milan have the advantage both in terms of form, player quality and football fluidity, so we can see the Rossoneri winning their first away game against Mourinho in almost two years.

However, a draw may be seen as an okay result for both teams. Thus, this part of our AS Roma vs AC Milan tips is for those who want to be on the safer side. William Hill offers 2.00 odds on the draw no bet line on Milan: you will win the bet if Milan beat Roma, and the money will be returned to you in case of a draw. The only bad outcome is a win for the Giallorossi, which is fairly unlikely.

In any case, please remember to always gamble responsibly. These AS Roma vs AC Milan tips should not be viewed as a call to action but rather as a friendly suggestion.