AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Tips

Dumitru Palanchuk
Dumitru Palanchuk
27 November 2023, 14:55

AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund Preview

It was a consensus at the start of the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League campaign that Group F would be the group of death since it had Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan, Borussia Dortmund and Newcastle United. However, even the most optimistic BVB fans would have not predicted back then that their team would be sitting top of the group with just two matches left.

The Germans can secure a play-off spot already this Tuesday, November 28, when they pay a visit to AC Milan at San Siro. We will expand on it in our AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, but the home side will not go down without a fight. The kick off at San Siro is scheduled for 9 pm local time.

AC Milan Preview

Despite a slow start to their 2023/24 UEFA Champions League journey, AC Milan are still in the running for play-off spots. Stefano Pioli’s men started with two goalless draws – against Newcastle and Dortmund – then lost to Paris Saint-Germain at Parc Des Princes only to beat them in the return leg.

The Rossoneri currently sit third in the table with five points, two points behind their next rivals Dortmund. They can overtake the Germans with a win on Tuesday, but beating the most defensive team in Group F – as we will explain further in the AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund tips – will be no easy task.

Borussia Dortmund Preview

BVB do not find themselves top of the table by chance. Edin Terzic has built a solid defensive unit which has so far conceded just two goals in four UEFA Champions League matches while scoring thrice. This sees Borussia Dortmund with a record of two wins, one draw and one loss.

An important part of the AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund odds is what the match means for the visitors. A win at San Siro will qualify them for the round of 16 with one game to spare. Anything but, and Dortmund will have to decide their fate in the home game against PSG on December 13.

Betting Tips AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund

Under 2.5 goals

It goes without saying that the upcoming match is very important for both teams. The difference here is that AC Milan will be forced to attack whereas Borussia Dortmund will be able to play to their strength. Even a point at San Siro can go a long way for the Germans.

Attack-wise, the Rossoneri are far from being the best team in the world. They have scored two goals in the UEFA Champions League so far, ang both of those came in the previous match against PSG. In Serie A, Milan aren’t doing much better as their first game after the international break was a minimal win over Frosinone thanks to a penalty.

Considering Dortmund’s impressive defensive numbers and Milan’s less-than-inspiring frontline, the fans should expect a low-scoring game on Tuesday. Bet365 offers 1.95 odds on under 2.5 goals.

Under 10 corner kicks

Hand in hand with a low number of scoring chances, the AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund prediction promises a low number of corner kicks. The odds on under 10 corner kicks stand at 1.90 on Bet365.

We base this part of our AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund tips on the way the Rossoneri attack – they try to do it through the middle. Between carrying the ball forward or looking for Olivier Giroud with a cross into the box, their wide players tend to pick the former. 

And second, there is the ultra-defensive formation that the Germans will likely assume on Tuesday. There were 13 corner kicks between the two in the 0-0 draw at Signal Iduna Park in October. Back then, however, BVB were motivated to attack as they were playing at home. There will be no such need on November 28, with a clean sheet being more favourable.

Half Time Result – Draw

We will not go as far as to comment on how the match at San Siro will end but we do think that there the score will be level when the teams leave for the break. Bet365 gives 2.20 odds on draw at half time.

An early goal against AC Milan would mean that Dortmund will be forced to attack in the second half, which will expose them defensively and may lead to another conceded goal. Instead, it is far more viable for the visitors to sit in a low block in the first 45 minutes and only in the second half look for some kind of opening in Milan’s defence via counter-attacks.

If we were to consult the previous matches, three of AC Milan’s games in the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League were level at half time. For Dortmund, this is true in two of four games. So, there is a solid chance that this trend will continue.

Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Our AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund odds are suggestions, not a call to action. Always rely on your own judgement in the end.